In Paris 2015 a 2 degrees C target was agreed for the temperature rise from pre-industrial levels. A 2 degrees C rise is equivalent to a carbon budget of 2900 Gt CO2. Since 1870 73% (2100 Gt) has been used. This means that we have some 800 Gt CO2 left in the budget:. Any additional Green House Gas emission will lead to a rise above 2 degrees. When the carbon budget has been used up, negative-carbon energy technology will be required.
In 2019, booked proven reserves were equivalent to some 1500 Gt CO2 emissions. Under the IEA 'business as usual' scenario, $2.3 trillion of investment from 2019 until 2025 is inconsistent with the Paris commitment.
Is it feasible to stop producing fossil fuels?
Yes, but it will take time and it will be very expensive. Of 170,000 TWh of energy required annually, Oil, Gas and Coal account for 80%; Solar, Wind and Other Renewables for 5% to 10%. Even in the most aggressive scenario, the IEA predicts yearly oil and gas consumption of 70 mb/d and 4000 bcm.
Is it ethical to stop producing fossil fuels?
1.2 bn of the world's population are without electricity. 2.7 bn are without access to clean cooking. Developing countries have other priorities. They need access to reliable and affordable energy, clean water, food, education, safety, sanitary conditions and peace. Who are we to downgrade these priorities? Developing countries need to utilise the fossil fuel reserves in the ground.
Some industrial greenhouse gas emissions cannot be avoided
Cement (lime-stone), Steel (realistically) and agriculture are examples. Their emissions require CCS to continue production when the carbon budget has been spent.
Renewables are intermittent.
It takes time to develop large scale energy storage solutions - if at all possible on a national or global scale, let alone for periods exceeding a single night. It will also take decades to develop sufficient nuclear power. Dispatchable power will always be required. Power that can be switched on and off as needed. Fossil fuels make this possible today, and CCS enables doing this without emissions.
CCU and CCS are natural companions for the Oil & Gas industry
Using CCS Oil and Gas producing companies can produce with much lower emission (smaller emission footprint). It is only a matter of time until governments and the public will demand this. Along with a future embargo on the production of coal, or the cessation of production of CO2 from domes for Enhanced Oil Recovery. CCS is a natural fit for Oil and Gas companies: it requires the same assets, same skills and the same financing and commercial structures.
TriGen Technology is oxyfuel CCS
It will facilitate and enable the Energy Transition, will support Renewables by offering Dispatchable Power, and it is more profitable than Renewable Projects. It unlocks wealth in the NetZero phase. The technology also unlocks energy optionality in the area of hydrogen and algae.
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